Global Shipping Update: China Is About To Wreck Your Summer ~ May 11, 2022


Let’s review shipping updates from Craig Fuller, Founder/CEO of FreightWaves and American Shipper.

Shanghai image from a Tweet embedded below

Vessels Waiting to Enter Port of Shanghai 

This is how many vessels are waiting to enter the port of Shanghai. Raising interest rates will not solve this problem (just saying) — Michael Nicoletos (@mnicoletos) April 22, 2022

Video Images of Shanghai

There’s a video on every single WeChat Moments right now, being censored as quickly as someone can repost. Scrolling down every feed is just this video being reuploaded and then censored. It depicts desperate people calling into CDC asking for help during the Shanghai outbreak. — Dan (@DRechts) April 22, 2022

Shanghai Covid Lockdown

1/ THREAD: The extended Shanghai lockdown is morphing into a logistics disaster as trucks trickle into the city, leaving empty containers piling up at the world’s largest port. What’s happening with cargo there: w/ @yoyominnie @Kubota_Yoko @wsj_douglasj — Liza Lin (@lizalinwsj) April 22, 2022

China About to Wreck Your Summer

The Chinese Communist Party is about to wreck your summer. — Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🇺🇦 (@FreightAlley) April 23, 2022

The coming volume drop in ocean container volumes (TEUs) leaving China for US ports is staggering. Our Ocean TEU Volume Index in SONAR now has a 14-day forward look at volumes, and it looks ugly. By early May 2022, we could see the lowest levels we’ve seen since May of 2020.

There will be a surge of containers from China when it resumes its economy, but no one knows when this will happen, how long it will take, and how backed up their domestic supply chains are. For now, we know the freight market is slowing and 🇨🇳 is only making things worse. 1/ — Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🇺🇦 (@FreightAlley) April 17, 2022

Deflation Anyone?

7% drop this week in trucking shipping rates. #deflation — Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🇺🇦 (@FreightAlley) April 22, 2022

What About Kitchen Appliances?

A large private consumer kitchenware manufacturer told me that they have seen a large contraction in demand over the past 8 weeks. — Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🇺🇦 (@FreightAlley) April 22, 2022

“A large private consumer kitchenware manufacturer told me that they have seen a large contraction in demand over the past 8 weeks.”

Question of the Day

Its hard to say – it could allow inventories to burn off, but the biggest question is what those inventories consist of and how long will Chinese manufacturing be shut down. Too many questions at this point. — Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🇺🇦 (@FreightAlley) April 23, 2022

Is the slowdown in Shanghai at all welcome? That’s the big question. 

To the extent US merchants have ordered too much inventory in the face of falling demand, perhaps. 

But Fuller notes there are just too many questions. For starters, what is China doing? Every other country on the planet is loosening restrictions. 

What’s really going on?

What About the UK?

🇬🇧 Retail sales fall 1.4% as rising inflation takes its toll on spending — Neil Saunders (@NeilRetail) April 23, 2022

Meanwhile, Back in the States 

Truckload contract load volumes dropped 4.5% this week. 7th consecutive week of declining contract truckload volumes. Next week is EOM, hoping for an uptick. — Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🇺🇦 (@FreightAlley) April 23, 2022

“Truckload contract load volumes dropped 4.5% this week. 7th consecutive week of declining contract truckload volumes. Next week is EOM, hoping for an uptick.”

More Deflation Calls

These Bank of America Weekly Shipper Survey charts are nasty for carriers but suggest #deflation is on the way. — Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🇺🇦 (@FreightAlley) April 23, 2022

Recession Level Trucking Demand

Bank of America’s Weekly Shipper Survey “near freight recession level” — Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🇺🇦 (@FreightAlley) April 23, 2022

Important Point

I believe you get the idea, shipping is a mess and there is a slowdown as well. A US housing bust is underway.

Existing Home Sales Decline Again, But the Big Bust Starts Next Month

But here’s an important point about deflation and recession: When Fuller makes a recession or deflation call, it is specifically about the trucking industry, not an overall assessment.

He made that point clear in my video interview of Fuller that I posted on April 14. 

See MishTalk TV with the CEO of FreightWaves: Trucking Recession or the Real Deal? for the video and discussion points.

Whereas he comments on the trucking industry, I am willing to go further. A very hard landing is on the way. 

Thanks again to Craig Fuller for the interview and all of his Tweets.

By cindyloucbp

Cynthia is the typical Pisces! Her left brain activities include scientific activities in the hospital laboratory as a director. Her right-brain activites show as a painter, photographer and musician. She is known as the scientist who sings!

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