Why war with China over Taiwan could ruin the global economy ~ July 24, 2023

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Separated from mainland China by a narrow strait, Taiwan faces a constant threat from a powerful neighbor that claims the island as an inseparable part of its territory. Taiwan is armed to the teeth and has powerful friends, but with China growing stronger and more aggressive, the risk of armed conflict is climbing higher.

Beijing continues to view the island’s democratic government as a challenge to its authoritarian rule, and has never taken the use of force off the table to get what it wants. In October, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said China might take steps to annex Taiwan on a “much faster timeline” than previously thought.

Whether it’s 2030, 2027, 2025, or even this year, experts say it could wreak havoc on the global economy and take a devastating toll on the militaries involved.

The US, which has armed Taiwan with everything from air defense systems to anti-ship missiles to fighter jets, is not required to intervene if China invades Taiwan. But President Joe Biden has broken away from strategic ambiguity and said that the US would come to the island’s defense if China invaded, meaning that if a fight breaks out over Taiwan, it could get messy in a hurry.

War games say China likely loses, but nobody wins

Beijing has noticeably “intensified” its military, diplomatic, and political pressure against Taiwan and increased its “provocative and destabilizing actions,” the US Department of Defense wrote in a 2022 report on China’s military. 

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army is spending more time carrying out drills focused on seizing islands by force and flying more bombers, fighters, and other aircraft near Taiwan, the Pentagon reported.

Though China’s actions have stirred fears of a possible Chinese attack, the US military assesses that an invasion of Taiwan would prove extremely difficult for the Chinese military. It would likely invite intervention from other militaries, strain the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, and create political and military risks for Chinese leader Xi Jinping and the ruling Chinese Communist Party.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies recently ran war games looking at how a large-scale Chinese invasion of Taiwan might play out, and the outcomes were bleak for China, but also for everyone else involved.

China would start by bombing Taiwan’s air force and navy before using its own naval forces to surround and lay siege to the island. Meanwhile, Chinese air assault and airborne troops would land on Taiwan’s shores as tens of thousands of soldiers head to the island on civilian cargo ships and military amphibious vessels.      

But Beijing’s efforts would likely not be enough, CSIS found. Chinese troops would struggle to strengthen their supplies and move inland from the beaches, where they would be met by stiff resistance from defending Taiwanese forces. 

US and Japanese forces, assuming they came to the island’s aid, would likely be able to take out China’s amphibious fleet, but at tremendous cost. 

Taiwan would probably remain unconquered but heavily damaged, CSIS concluded. For example, the island would struggle to maintain basic services and electricity, and its military would be significantly depleted. China, on the other hand, would be left with tens of thousands of soldiers killed, wounded, or captured, a navy in total ruins, and a shattered amphibious force.